What is sports forecasting

Что такое спортивное прогнозирование

In our article “What is sports forecasting” we will explain how sports forecasting differs from sports betting, talk about the pros and cons.

Probably, every sports fan is familiar with the situation when before the start of a match a friend approaches you with the question “Who do you think will win?”. Trying to predict the result using your own arguments and arguments is an example of sports forecasting.

This term refers to making predictions on the results of sporting events. The most popular formats:

  • Own blog with author’s analytics (on the website or in social networks);
  • Participation in forecasting contests;
  • Making forecasts for thematic platforms;
  • Providing expert analytics (option for sports journalists, commentators, former or current athletes, coaches, etc.).

Structure of a sports forecast

If we are talking about a sports forecast, which is recorded in writing, it usually has an approximate structure. It is clear that each author has his own approach to expressing thoughts on upcoming matches, but still there are approximate templates for composing the text, popular on many thematic sites and convenient for both authors and prognosticators. Here is one of the variants:

  1. Introduction – information about the event: date, time, place, opponents;
  2. Rival 1 – information about the form of the first team or athlete;
  3. Rival 2 – information about the away team or athlete who comes second in the roster;
  4. Statistical trends – brief and succinct facts from statistics that can provide thoughts for specific bets;
  5. Forecast – a conclusion formed in the form of a bet with a specific odds, which is suggested based on the above information.

Difference between sports forecasting and betting

Sports betting
Sports betting

The key difference between making forecasts and betting is the risk of losing money. In the first case there is no such risk. Forecasters only analyze the information and based on it assume the most probable outcomes, but do not make bets themselves, which eliminates the risk of losing your own money, even if the forecast suddenly turns out to be wrong.

A truth that has already been confirmed many times continues to be relevant: money has a very strong influence on the style of thinking. Even 100 rubles of your own money can cloud a prognosticator’s mind and lead his thoughts in the wrong direction.

On the one hand, their own money at stake should discipline the player and concentrate his thoughts on the search for outcomes that are absolutely sure to win. After all, in the case of losing the forecast is nothing terrible, but unsuccessful own bet – the loss of money spent on it from his own pocket.

On the other hand, the risk of losing money when losing a bet restrains the player and limits the freedom of choice. Here is an example. A player is in doubt between two betting options: TM (2.5) for 2.50 or the slightly less risky TM (2) for 1.9 with the possibility of a return.

After a full analysis of the statistics, the player realizes that 3 goals in this match is a very likely option. But seeing the odds, subconsciously he starts to doubt and thinks that such a bet is a big risk of losing. The player makes a slightly less risky bet on TM (2), to reinsure himself. The match ends with the score 2:2 and the bet on TM (2,5) would have passed quietly, if the player, because of the risk of losing money, did not go along with his emotions and did not take another, slightly less risky.

Pros of sports forecasting

The most obvious advantage of sports forecasting is the absence of risk of losing your own money. Even the longest unsuccessful series will not lead to exactly nothing. Losing bets that were not actually made is just a reason to think about what was wrong in the forecast.

Hence the second plus – forecasts can be used as a way to gain useful experience. Analysis of previous attempts allows you to better understand which factors more often affect the outcome, and which ones should be treated with more skepticism next time.

In betting, players are limited by the bank, and can make as many bets as the allocated budget allows. But the number of predictions that can be made is limited only by the availability of free time, enthusiasm and imagination. Otherwise, nothing prevents the user from making as many predictions as he wants.

Minuses of sports forecasting

For those who use betting as a way to earn money (we do not recommend it, but we still understand that there are a lot of such players), the main advantage of predictions automatically turns into their main disadvantage – the inability to monetize the results.

From this point of view, you can give even 90% passability on the distance with great odds, but it makes no sense if it does not bring the author absolutely no money. And the time and effort spent on analyzing statistics and making predictions are valuable resources that could be spent on something else. We do not claim that this approach is correct, but it also has the right to exist.

Empty wallet
Empty wallet

Another nuance is making predictions within contests. Often such competitions have clear and rather strict limits. For example, you can make predictions strictly for certain disciplines, tournaments or even matches. Also, there may be odds limits (both minimum and maximum). All this can confuse the authors of predictions, make them try to offer bets in those types in which they are not too good, to select options that fit the odds limits.

Also, you should be cautious about moving from forecasts to real bets. Sooner or later such a thought comes to many forecasters. Especially after long winning streaks. Forecaster begins to realize that he is doing a great job, and even a little regret that he did not repeat his predictions by betting in the bookmaker, because it could bring him an impressive additional income.

But here you need to realize that in real betting everything is much more complicated. Even long winning streaks or single bets with high odds should not be confusing. No one can guarantee that, having moved to real money betting, the forecaster will cope with the pressure of the risk of loss and continue to produce the same results.

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Alexander/ author of the article

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